Bookie Beater Academy

Choosing the Right Capper

If there is one thing we can guarantee it’s that in the long run ALL of the cappers in the BB US team WILL make profit for you and ALL of our cappers provide a legitimate form of investment with long term returns well in excess of any hedge funds or brokerages out there.

So when choosing the right capper it’s just a case of picking the guy with the biggest ROI (Return on Investment or ROI)? Not necessarily….

Firstly many of you will be fans of one particular sport and despite this being an investment it should also be fun, there is nothing more satisfying that profiting from your passion. This is why we offer such a wide range of cappers who specialise in their respective sports.

There are other less measurable considerations too like the average odds the capper backs. For instance our golf capper has a lower strike rate than say our basketball capper, however when he wins he generally wins BIG. Believe us when we say there is NOTHING like landing a +5000 winner on  a Sunday afternoon to cap off your weekend!

Ok let’s look at more measurable means of performance, namely the ROI through this example:

Capper A – 8% profit on turnover

Capper B – 22% profit on turnover

Which capper would you rather be with?

Most people immediately respond with the answer “capper B of course!” The correct answer to the question though is “it depends…there isn’t enough information to decide.”

For some reason we have been conditioned over the years to think of betting success as defined by profit on turnover (ROI%), that is:

Profit / Outlay = ROI%

For example, if you outlay $20,000 in a year and return $22,000, you have made a profit of $2,000. Dividing that by your outlay ($20,000) gives you 0.1 or 10% profit on turnover.

The figure of 10% ROI tells you that you definitely made a profit during the year, but that by itself means little and can actually be misleading. Of much more importance is the answer to the question:

“How much money did I actually make?”

After all, betting is motivated by the desire to make money that can be spent or invested on other things to make our lives better. Whether the $2,000 you made represents 10% of your turnover, 5% or 25% is irrelevant. What matters most is that you made $2,000 profit. As the saying goes…”you can’t spend percentages!”

Let’s consider the original question again, this time with more detail added.

BANK BETS AVG BET OUTLAY ROI% PROFIT$
CAPPER A $10,000 625 $200 $125,000 8% $10,000
CAPPER B $10,000 150 $200 $30,000 22% $6,600

 

We can see that both cappers started the year with a bank of $10,000 and staked an average of $200 on each selection (2% of their bank). Capper A employed a high action selection strategy with 12 bets per week, while Capper B was much more conservative, waiting patiently for the what he saw as the best opportunities, making 3 bets per week.

Capper B’s strategy to be more selective resulted in an impressive 22% profit on turnover, but he only made $6,600 profit in real dollars. Capper A on the other hand made $10,000 profit, upwards of 50% more. Capper A worked his capital effectively, turning it over 12.5 times in the year and extracting a good profit.

Capper B on the other hand didn’t work his money as hard, turning it over just 3 times. In real investment terms, Capper A took $10,000 in capital and made $10,000 profit from it. Capper B took the same amount of capital and only made $6,600 from it. If you had $10,000 to invest, who would you rather give your money to?

Despite the logic of this, many people tend to focus purely on ROI% when measuring their betting success. A 15% ROI is considered more successful than a 10% ROI, which is more successful than a 5% ROI. The above example highlights though that this is not necessarily the case.

How Should You Measure Betting Success?

If you take your betting seriously and aspire to reach at least a semi-professional level, then always remember that profit in real dollars is the only thing that matters. When it comes to betting I am entirely focused on trying to maximize the amount of money I make each year in real dollar terms. The more money I make, the better off I am.

Of course what does need to be considered is the amount of capital you put aside for betting on the races. If you put $10,000 aside for betting then you should measure your success relative to that amount. After all, this is the amount you are taking away from other areas of your life and risking on the races. Your goal should be to work this amount productively during the year and make as much profit from it as possible.

The best way to measure your betting success then is to consider the following question:

“How many times did I multiply my betting bank in the year?”

If you allocate $10,000 for your betting bank each year, then the true measure of your success is how many times you can multiply that amount in profit. The more times you multiply it, the more successful you are. What you need to outlay in total bets and the percentage profit on that amount means nothing. In fact, the more times you can turn your bank over the better. At the end of the day, you are still only risking $10,000.

With that in mind, let’s look at the success of our two Cappers:

Capper A – $10,000 profit = 1.0 Bank Growth Ratio

Capper B – $6,600 profit = 0.66 Bank Growth Ratio

When you consider the Bank Growth Ratio of each capper, it’s obvious that Capper A was far more successful. He was able to double his bank in the year, while Capper B only increased his by 66%.

Calculating Your Bank Growth Ratio

The formula for Bank Growth Ratio is:

Profit $ / Starting Bank $ = Bank Growth Ratio

To measure your Bank Growth Ratio during the year, all you need to do is annualise your year to date profit and divide it by your starting bank. For example, if come 31st March Capper A was showing a profit of $3,000, the expected annual profit would be $12,000 (31st March is three months into the calendar year, therefore we multiply the year to date figure by four to get the expected annual profit.)

Dividing the $12,000 annualised profit by the $10,000 starting bank equals a Bank Growth Ratio of 1.2 or 120%.

Increasing your Bank Growth Ratio from 1.0 to 1.5 means that you have become a more successful bettor. The same cannot be said however if you increase your profit on turnover from 10% to 15%. As our example above showed, a higher ROI% can actually mean less in real dollars profit. Remember that real dollars profit is the only thing that matters!

Focus On Bank Growth!

Being a successful bettor is about multiplying your betting bank in profit, not achieving the best possible ROI%. Growth in your bank is driven by two key factors:

  1. Your Volume (the number of bets you make and the average size of each bet)
  2. Your Edge (the percentage profit you make for each $1 invested)

To maximize your success as a bettor you must focus on both of these things. A 15% ROI is not much good if you are only making 3 bets per week. Measuring success in terms of your Bank Growth Ratio makes you realize that 10 bets per week at 6% ROI is actually much better.

The best selection strategy is one that provides a good volume of bets with a solid and reliable profit margin. It’s only through a combination of these two things that you will be able to grow your bank at a decent rate and win a huge amount in real dollars profit each year.

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